Trading Betts to the Angels

I’ve never really been a trade proposal or trade evaluation kind of guy. I enjoy the rumors as much as the next person and read as many as I can and formulate my own ideas of value and fairness in my head as I read each one.

This off-season, however, I’ve been bothered by the discussion of the Red Sox, Cubs, and Indians willingness to trade their stars Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, and Francisco Lindor, respectively. I’ve run a few ideas through my head for some crazy scenarios where all three get moved in a single trade via various 4-way trades, but those aren’t likely to happen and as simple as a 2-team trade is to work out, a 4-team trade is beyond the time I have to invest into it.

Even though I am a Cubs fan, Betts has been the one that has stuck in my mind the most after I saw a rumor that had Betts moving to Angels as I couldn’t stop thinking of him and Trout on the same team. Now that the Angels have signed Rendon, I thought even more about how this could work, while still allowing the Angels to get the pitching depth they desperately need.

According to Cot’s Contracts, after signing Rendon, the Angels have just under $35 million before hitting the magic $208m figure that triggers the luxury tax. Meanwhile, Angels ownership has made comments indicating they may be willing to blow past that figure to build a winning team.

As it stands now, the Red Sox are currently sitting at a payroll of just over $218m, which means they need to shed a little more than $10m just to get under the threshold they say they are aiming for. Realistically, though, they need to shed more to also make room for replacement players.

The rumored trade included Price, Eovaldi, and Betts to the Angels. Without accounting for the Angels return, this would free up roughly $76.5m. Obviously, this would be ideal, but I also see this as unlikely. In order for this to make sense, the Angels would also need to free up almost $42m to also stay under as, while this helps them with pitching depth, it’s not the quantity or quality they would really hope for, especially for that sum of money.

So, we’ll start with Betts, he’s projected to earn roughly $27.5m in arbitration during his final year before free agency. Betts is projected to produce 7.8 WAR. The $/WAR value seems to be more of a curve than a linear value these days, so I’ll err on the side of caution and go with $8.5m and 5% inflation. This would give Betts roughly $38.8m in surplus value.

David Price has three years left at $32m per year and is projected for 3.1, 3.0, and 3.0 WAR, respectively. Resulting in a $38m deficit. So basically, Betts and Price are virtually a wash in total value.

Nathan Eovaldi also has three years left, but at $17m per year. He projects for 1.2, 1.4, and 1.2 WAR, which works out to a $17m deficit.

So, for the Angels to take on these three players, they’d be at -$17m in production value and +$76.5m in salary obligations. The Angels already traded Cozart, who would’ve been the best fit for this kind of salary dump, which leaves them very little else aside from Pujols, whose remaining contract of $59m over two years with 0.5 and 0.3 projected WAR, leaves him at a $52.1m deficit. Pujols isn’t going anywhere in this type of trade, though his salary would balance out the luxury tax side much better.

This only makes sense if we leave Eovaldi and Pujols out. Now the trade is a wash in production value with the Angels taking on $59.5 towards the tax threshold. A much more manageable figure.

With Betts and Price, the Angels could now offer up Justin Upton, which would clear up both some salary and an OF spot for Betts. Upton has three years remaining on an elevating $21m, $23m, $28m schedule (but still a $21m AAV for tax purposes). Upton, however, projects for 3.1, 3.0, and 3.0 WAR, resulting in a surplus of value to the tune of $9.25m.

We still need to balance this trade out, so we’ll look at prospects and we’ll use Driveline’s prospect valuation tool for projecting value.

The Angels have RHP Luis Madero, who pitched in AA last season and grades out at a 45 FV and is ranked on MLB.com as the Angels #11 prospect. Using the Driveline tool, this would work out to $10.5m in surplus value for Madero once you factor in risk and discounting for future production versus immediate production.

As it stands right now, we have the Red Sox sending Betts and Price to the Angels and the Angels sending back Upton and Madero. However, the financial side doesn’t quite work out yet. The Angels are still absorbing too much salary (taking on $59.5m and giving up $21m) and they are giving up too much surplus (0.8m vs. 19.75m). We could balance the surplus by having the Red Sox send over RHP Colton Brewer.

Brewer projects out over his 5 years of team control at 2.4 WAR, and roughly $21.2m in surplus value with similar discounting as for Madero. This brings the production value roughly in-line ($19m-$21m), but still leaves the Angels holding on to too much in terms of salary obligations ($212m payroll and still in need of at least one more starting pitcher), so instead of Brewer coming to the Angels, we need to see if there’s anyone else the Angels could part with to balance out the production value and the salary obligations.

Unfortunately, there really isn’t anyone else the Angels could offer, so it would come down to the Red Sox being willing to eat a portion of Price’s salary instead of Brewer, so long as the Angels throw in an additional prospect with around a 45-50 FV they should be able to get enough covered to justify the trade.

The Angels have two prospects who could make this work, Brandon Marsh and Jordyn Adams, their #2 and #3 prospects, respectively. These two prospects grade out similarly, even if they get there in different ways. Given that Betts would be a 1-year deal and the likelihood of Adell reaching the majors this season, the odds of them re-signing Betts would be slim to none, so they’ll need to be ready to either find another OF on the market next season or be ready to fill the void from within. That is Marsh, or even Marsh this season with Adell filling Betts void in 2021.

Adams just turned 20 after the season wrapped up and is still in single-A, but the two-sport star is well on his way to making an impact in the majors and is projected to crack a roster by 2022. Using the Driveline tool, we can put a discounted and risk adjusted future value/surplus value of $25.9m on Adams.

I think this trade works if it’s Betts and Price, with the Red Sox paying half, or $48m, of Price’s salary in exchange for Upton, Adams, & Madero. This would leave the Angels at $195.5m this season, which would allow them $12.5m in AAV this year to before the tax. They could still go after the Ryu, Keuchel, Bumgarner pitcher and pay $25m AAV. They’d go over the tax and hit $220m this season, but with Betts dropping off for 2021 and both Marsh and Adell likely ready for 2021, they should be able to get back under the $210m threshold in 2021 to reset their penalty, which – as mentioned above – they’ve indicated they are willing to do this season.

This would give the Angels a projected 35 WAR offense and 18 WAR pitching staff, putting then in the same neighborhood as the 51 WAR Yankees and 50 WAR Dodgers, though still just behind the 54 WAR Astros. This would drop the Red Sox to around 38 WAR, which is the same neighborhood as the Phillies, Padres, Cubs, and Braves. But, more important to their stated goals, frees up $22.5m in salary obligations and gets them to $195.5m, which they can use to pick up a handful of flyers or incentive-laden minor league contracts for pitching depth and stay under the tax and still potentially compete for one of the wild card spots (though with the strength of the Astros/Angels/A’s and Yankees/Rays, it’s unlikely anyway).

Wrapping up, this trade needs to happen. With all the drama of juiced balls, de-juiced balls, gambling tie-in allegations, opioids, sign-stealing, etc that we had to deal with in 2019, that we need to see a Trout, Betts, Rendon, Ohtani, Simmons, Adell, Pujols team. Besides, who wouldn’t want to see Betts and Trout in the same OF? Or the last two AL MVPS patrolling side by side?

Let’s go guys, make this happen for the fans and the fun!