How the Cubs Won, but Really Lost, the Trade Deadline

What may have been the most exciting and craziest trade deadline ever is now behind us and I thought I’d try to sort through all the moves the Cubs made and make sense of them.

In total the Cubs made the following moves:

• Sent OF Joc Pederson to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for OF Bryce Ball
• Sent RHP Ryan Tepera to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for LHP Bailey Horn.
• Sent 1B Anthony Rizzo & cash consideration to the New York Yankees in exchange for RHP Alexander Vizcaino and OF Kevin Alcantara.
• Sent RHP Craig Kimbrel to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for 2B Nick Madrigal and RHP Codi Heuer.
• Sent SS Javy Baez, RHP Trevor Williams, and cash to the New York Mets in exchange for OF Pete Crow-Armstrong.
• Sent OF Jake Marisnick to the San Diego Padres in exchange for RHP Anderson Espinoza
• Sent 3B/OF Kris Bryant and cash considerations to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHP Caleb Kilian and OF Alexander Canario.

All told the Cubs gave up (projected remaining WAR under contract):

1B Anthony Rizzo (1.3)
SS Javy Baez (1.2)
3B Kris Bryant (1.1)
OF Jake Marisnick (0.3)
OF Joc Pederson (0.5)
RHP Craig Kimbrel (0.3)
RHP Ryan Tepera (0.1)
RHP Trevor Williams (0.4)

And enough cash to pay the remainder of each of Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo’s salaries.

In return they received (prospect grade):

1B Bryce Ball (40+)
2B Nick Madrigal (55)
OF Kevin Alcantara (50)
OF Alexander Canario (45)
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (45)
LHP Bailey Horn (35+)
RHP Caleb Kilian (40)
RHP Codi Heuer (45)
RHP Anderson Espinoza (40+)
RHP Alexander Vizcaino (45)

In terms of business, the Cubs did really well. Really, really, well. They moved five expiring contracts and two short contracts for seven prospects under full team control and two players with 5+ years of team control.

Reminder, this also came after an off-season in which the Cubs traded RHP Yu Darvish (9.6) & C Victor Caratini (3.4), as well as released OF Kyle Schwarber (2.1) and didn’t resign LHP Jon Lester (0.6) despite being available on the cheap. In return for these moves the Cubs brought in another slew of prospects, RHP Zach Davies (1.9), and OF Joc Pederson (1.2). Pederson has since been traded out and counted above, but the prospects received include SS Reginald Preciado (50), 2B Yeison Santana (40+), OF Owen Caissie (45), and OF Ismael Mena (40+).

From the transaction deadline deals the Cubs gave up 1.6 WAR that they aren’t paying for (they’re still paying for Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo). At say, $8.5m/WAR that’s $13.6m today for a projected 41 WAR over these prospects pre-arb, cost-controlled years. With no inflation baked in, at league minimum, that’s a net value gain of around $35.5m on the prospects or a projected value gain on these trades of roughly $25m. Including their off-season moves, the team made out to the tune of roughly $205m between dollars saved this year and dollars gained over the future. For the pocketbooks of the Ricketts, that’s a huge win. From a pure business perspective, the Cubs absolutely won these trades.

However, baseball, while a business, isn’t a business in the normal sense. Even the worst teams bring in millions or even hundreds of millions in profits under the worst circumstances (see the Braves financials last year during Covid where their only losses were in money “loaned” to other divisions of the organization to develop real estate properties. If you look at the value that money brought those other divisions, the Braves still netted out quite well). Baseball isn’t just about the bottom line, it’s about the product on the field, about winning, about the experience.

Through that lens, the Cubs lost. Not a single player received will be, or even projects to be, better than Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Kimbrel, or Darvish. The Cubs won’t be better this year, next year, two years from now, or even five years from now because of these trades. They’re worse off no matter how you look at it from a baseball perspective. Not only that, but they’re under tax threshold this season and only have $45m on the books for next season. They could have extended each of the big three and kept Darvish and still been far enough under the tax threshold to go after another free agent or two ($45m+$20m for Darvish+$35m for Bryant+$30m for Baez+25m for Rizzo=$155m). That’s still roughly $60m away from the first-tier tax threshold, which is plenty to work with to snag a few role fillers around them.

For the third straight year the Cubs front office has shown it is more interested in the business profits and not concerned with the product on the field or the fan experience. The Cubs lost a lot this week (and this season) in terms of the baseball product and especially the fan experience.

So yeah, while the Cubs won these trades in one sense. They really lost and lost hard at the trade deadline this season. It’s not every year one of the richest franchises in the top markets has a chance to build a great winning team around a core of fan favorites and the Cubs have blown a great opportunity to cement a legacy in the annuals of baseball.

In two years, when these prospects, plus all the Cubs own, form the core the team builds around, I’ll enjoy the winning the team will do. But, I’ll always know deep down, the Ricketts will only go for it if it benefits their pockets the most.