The Cons of Derek Jeter (Applied Game Theory)

When I first started talking with the rest of the MLB Marathon team about doing HOF pro/con pieces and threw out the idea of a unanimous Jeter yay/nay piece, it seemed like a silly idea that was reaching for an audience and even for content. As we’ve neared the vote, however, there has been a steady stream of content discussing whether Jeter should be a unanimous selection or not, with some more out-there discussion on whether Jeter should even be first-ballot or not.

We have the Jeter fanbase that rightfully recognizes a HOFer and argues that we know this is a HOFer, let’s get him in (to the point that two writers have turned in HOF ballots WITH ONLY JETER SELECTED). Then you have the detractors, that also recognize that he’s a HOFer, saying he meets the qualifications, but we’re paying so much attention to that side of his candidacy that we’re not really recognizing how he fits into the conversation or history (unfortunately, those pieces have been described as hit pieces or the writers as “haters).”

Yet, that’s what this piece is going to be, and yes, I’m going to discuss his defense, and his leadership, and his clutch-ness, and Placido Polanco, and his rings, and his “intangibles.” I won’t be knocking any of his accomplishments but will instead be highlighting his one true accomplishment. I’m going to try to tell a story, and paint a picture, and give a new-found respect for Jeter while also placing his candidacy in perspective.

Before we dig in, I don’t really believe in a 1st-ballot/not 1st-ballot system (you’re either a HOFer or you’re not), the format of the voting has almost forced that upon us, so I’ll be making the case that Jeter should not only not be unanimous, but also not a 1st-ballot selection due entirely to the nature of the process.

I feel this is even more important as the baseball community has started dividing itself over Jeters candidacy.

In Derek Jeter we have a SS that played for a single team over a 20-year career, made 14 all-star teams, won ROY, made the playoffs 16 times, and won 5 World Series titles. Over his career he managed to accumulate the 29th most games played in history (2,747), the 10th most PA (12,602), 6th most hits (3,465), 5th most singles (2,595), and 2nd most games as a SS (2,674). In addition to these regular season standards, Jeter has also accumulated the top spot in virtually every counting stat for post-season totals: games (158), PA, (734), R (111), H (200), TB (302), 2B (32), 3B (5), K (135), 1B (143), and finishing 3rd in HRs (20), 4th in RBI (61), and 5th in BB (66).

While, obviously, some of these are quite impressive, all of the can be attributed to his longevity and the sheer number of games he played, both in the regular season and post-season. When it comes to rate stats Jeter doesn’t rank – even in the post-season where he had 33 games and nearly 200 PA more than his closest competitors (teammates Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, respectively).

Jeter was an above-average hitter for his career, and only had four seasons with an OPS+ below 100 (a cup of coffee before his rookie season, his final season, a season in which he missed almost the whole year with an injury, and one season near the end of his career). However, Jeter only ever led the league in any category just 9 times. Five of those nine being in PA, another in AB, twice in H, and once in R.

We can already start to see the picture being painted here. Jeter had two things going for him: he played for a long time and got a significant number of opportunities every season and he played on good teams. We’ll revisit both of these points, but before we do, I want to touch back on a series of posts by Tom Tango on his blog starting in 2006 and going through 2014 where he began tracking/comparing Derek Jeter and Placido Polanco.

I’m not arguing Polanco is a HOF, I don’t believe he is, but I wanted to highlight the perception of value. Over the time period tracked the two were roughly equal on several measures, but Jeters perceived value was through the roof. Much like his perceived value as it relates to his HOF candidacy. Jeter was a good player at the time he was being tracked and he’s a HOF player now. He wasn’t worth $130m more than Polanco over that time period, just like he isn’t worth dropping players from a ballot to make a statement that he’s somehow uniquely qualified or that he deserves to have the stage to himself.

This is not a knock on Jeter, who did two things exceptionally well: He managed to play (at an average – above-average level) for 20 years and he took advantage of the opportunity he had with the Yankees of the 90s and 00s and fully capitalized on that good fortune. There have been other player to put in 20 years that don’t have his accumulated counting stats (like ballot-mate, Omar Vizquel) and there were several other players that played for those Yankees (like the aforementioned Posada and Williams), who don’t have Jeters HOF credentials.

However, that’s all he really brought to the table. He played above average offense for 20 years for one of the best franchises in history. Remember that. We’re going to circle back to this a few times.

Jeter was significantly below-average on defense (and maybe even worse than the stats indicated – see comment discussion in last article on Jeter/Polanco linked above) and there’s been some stats floating around Twitter suggesting he was the worst defensive SS in history (or at least for however long they have been tracking the data for that stat). For all the value he brought with his bat, he was actively costing his team wins with his glove, or more realistically, his range (Tom Tango’s WOWY for Jeter on defense).

I’ve had several friends mention his “intangibles” like his clutch hitting or his leadership. That Jeter elevated the performances of his teammates and he always came through when needed the most. He’s famously relegated as a clutch playoff performer, and yet his post-season WPA for his career is 0.02. basically neutral. In his famous WS where he earned his “Mr. November” nickname, he had a 0.07 WPA. Again, mostly neutral. He wasn’t clutch like his reputation suggested (for comparison, the also highly regarded as clutch David Ortiz put up an all-time best post-season WPA of 3.2 in half the PA of Jeter).

He wasn’t the clutch hitter his reputation made him out to be. He played above average offense for 20 years for one of the best franchises in history. That’s the value Jeter brought to the Yankees and the game.

I didn’t do a full WOWY, but I did do a quick snapshot look at some sort of “leadership” quality by looking at players that played with Jeter and also played elsewhere by taking a quick stab at how they performed comparatively with Jeter and without him (I did not control for age or any factors at all, but figured with the wide range of ages, positions, and types of players, that would mostly balance out for a snapshot quick-look measure) to see if Jeter was able to inspire or provide charisma, or some sort of immeasurable intangible leadership skill.

This list of players includes: Chuck Knoblach, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Rondell White, Raul Mondesi, Robin Ventura, Aaron Boone, Tony Clark, Gary Sheffield, Doug Mientkiewicz, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Mark Texiera, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, Vernon Wells, Raul Ibanez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Brian Roberts, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, Robinson Cano, and Melky Cabrera, and some twice as they played elsewhere, played with Jeter, and then elsewhere again. I didn’t look at pitchers, as I figured with his defensive value shown so clearly above it wouldn’t do any favors.

This list includes HOFers, all-stars, average players, rookies, retirees, and nobodies… they put up 88.6bWAR with Jeter and 103.8 bWAR the season immediately before/after playing with Jeter. It includes 30 full seasons before/after and with Jeter and 3 seasons where the player split time with the Yankees and the other team. Only 4 of the 33 were better with Jeter, and one of those four had an injury that kept them from playing a full season after leaving the Yankees. All told these players were 15% better in bWAR and 6% better in OPS+ without Jeter. The difference in OPS+ is equivalent to Bonds’ 2004 season being added to the stats of the season these guys played with Jeter.

If there’s a leadership skill there, I’m not seeing it. These teams made it to the playoffs because of the immense talent Steinbrenner consistently filled his teams with, not because of anything preternatural with Jeter. Jeter gets credit for all of these “intangibles,” but mostly those intangibles consist of the Yankees making the playoffs year after year. Once again, despite his reputation, he was “just” an above average hitter for 20 years for one of the best franchises in history.

Even for being an above average hitter, he was never even the sure-best hitting SS in the league. Only twice could he have even made the argument, but in both cases (1999 & 2006) he had multiple other SS putting up similar offensive numbers (Nomar and Omar Vizquel in ‘99 and Freddy Sanchez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, ARod, and Miguel Tejada in ‘06).

He played above average offense for 20 years for one of the best franchises in history. Because of this he was able to accumulate counting stats and championships. This in no way diminishes his accomplishments. Jeter is a HOFer, hands down, no question about it. But he got there not by being the best at his position or a generational talent, but by possessing the unique skill set of opportunity and circumstance.

Which brings us to the ballot. This ballot is loaded, not counting Jeter, there are six candidates that are more or less sure things by their stats, another ten that have enough of a case to have a conversation over whether they should be in the HOF or not. The first group has four that have non-baseball reasons to possibly exclude them and one additional player on his last year of eligibility.

Jeter is a HOF lock, and with this back-loaded ballot, there’s no reason for a conscientious voter to include Jeter this year, especially knowing he’ll be getting an artificial bump and other players will be getting an artificial kick-in-the-seat due to the Jeter stans submitting their Jeter only ballots. Jeter will undoubtedly get his 5% to stay on the ballot, so at this point a voter should leave him off to make sure other players don’t miss out on their opportunity due to over-valuing what Jeter brought to the table and voting on a reputation rather than on reality.

There’s no reason to keep Walker out, or to cost Abreu, Wagner, and Rolen their chance at having their cases heard, so those four should be on every ballot, plus a scattering of Bonds, Schilling, Kent, Vizquel, Ramirez, Petitte, Helton, Sheffield, and Jones as seen fit based on perceived quality of candidacy and chance of dropping off. Fill your 10 with these guys and vote for Jeter next year.

Not only does Jeter not qualify to dispose these guys from consideration, if we’re affording special value on unanimity, he falls short there as well. He’s a HOFer, but due to the process, he should get in next year so some (more in some cases) other very qualified candidates get a chance to have their case heard at all.

He was a special talent, but special in his ability to play above average offense for 20 years for one of the best franchises in history.